While the front-runner, there's still a chance the practical effects of 'Top Gun: Maverick' could surprise.

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: March 9, 2023

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Visual Effects

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“Avatar: The Way of Water” is considered a runaway in this race after grossing more than $2 billion worldwide. However, pay close attention to this category.

If “Top Gun: Maverick” pulls off an (unlikely, but possible) upset, the best picture statuette could be within grasp (assuming it wins editing and sound).

Will Win: “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios) – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett
Could Win: “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) – Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher
Should Win: “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
Should have been here: “Good Night Oppy” (Amazon Studios) — Ivan Busquets, Abishek Nair, Marko Chulev, Steven Nichols

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

Countdown to the Oscars with Variety here.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Nominees Are:
RankFilmVisual effects teamDistributor
1“Avatar: The Way of Water”Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett20th Century Studios
Jake Sully lives with his newfound family formed on the planet of Pandora. Once a familiar threat returns to finish what was previously started, Jake must work with Neytiri and the army of the Na’vi race to protect their planet.
2“Top Gun: Maverick”Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. FisherParamount Pictures
After thirty years, Maverick is still pushing the envelope as a top naval aviator, but must confront ghosts of his past when he leads TOP GUN’s elite graduates on a mission that demands the ultimate sacrifice from those chosen to fly it.
3“All Quiet on the Western Front”Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil JafarNetflix
A young German soldier’s terrifying experiences and distress on the western front during World War I.
4“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan SudickMarvel Studios
The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa.
5“The Batman”Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic TuohyWarner Bros.
When a sadistic serial killer begins murdering key political figures in Gotham, Batman is forced to investigate the city’s hidden corruption and question his family’s involvement.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

2022 category winner: "Dune" (Warner Bros.) - Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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